Weekly Trading Results

dligda

Member
I am going to post my weekly Trade Alerts Matrix results in this thread.

Some notes:
Your results will be different than mine. I am not at my computer 24/7 so I can't take every trade. I'm in the United States so anything that comes in during the London session I usually miss. Even a difference of one or two trades can make a great deal of difference in a week's performance.

My general process is to only take trades in the direction of the BVQ Matrix and the Forex Trend Speed Matrix. One exception this week was the GBP/CHF trade. I had not started consulting the Matrix when I took that trade and it was the week's biggest loss.

I may decide not to enter a trade for a variety of reasons. For example I was already in a EUR/GBP trade long when today's short came in. The "rules" say that I should close and reverse in this situation but since I was very near my stop I decided to wait and see if the market would take me out. I also wasn't thrilled with the Matrix readings on this pair so I probably would not have reentered anyway. Again - Your results will be different than mine because of these decisions.

I am using the suggested 60M ATR x 2.7 for a stop loss and 60M ATR x 4.3 for a take profit.

All lot sizes were 100 units or a penny per pip on my OANDA account. I am still getting my process down and will go to dynamic lot sizing when I'm comfortable I have the basics flowing smoothly.

This is a live account.

Overall I was happy with the week's results. If I can maintain a 50% win rate with this favorable Risk/Reward ratio I'll be

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dligda

Member
Results were significantly better this week. The account is up 5%. Remember, this is a live account traded under real world conditions. No smoke and mirrors or over-leverged sim trading.

I've included weekly and YTD results this time. I'm not in love with the OANDA trade analyzer. I may move to something more powerful like Tradervue in the future.

A few observations up to this point
  • There hasn't been a disastrous week so far. Losses have been well contained. The recommended risk management has been solid.
  • Correlation is an issue. Note that all three top performing trades were in the GBP and the three bottom were JPY. The signals often come in clusters as one currency puts in a significant movement. This is a risk management consideration. I may start factoring in exposure when choosing signals.
  • The win rate is fluctuating consistently between 40 and 50%. Again this is a good sign. We are not seeing wild swings in any of the performance parameters.
It was getting tedious to calculate the target and stop manually each time so I created a table based on the ranges of the 60M ATRs and use that for quick reference. It's just a sheet of paper on my desk. All I have to do is look up the current ATR and use the table.

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dligda

Member
This week was not as kind. I was up over $30 mid-week (unrealized) but had a number of trades turn around on me. I've never been a big fan of the CHF. It rarely seems to do well for me.

Just to prove how capricious the markets can be notice that two of the best trades have been in the GBP/USD - and one of the worst. Mama's shouldn't let their babies grow up to be traders. :D

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dligda

Member
Another strong performance. Made back most of the losses from last week. The equity curve is ugly but ended up in the right place.

The GBP continues to be the best, and the worst, performer. The JPY really helped me this week and the CHF was a laggard - as usual.

I really need to do some analysis and decide if I want to tweak anything now that I have a baseline. But overall the system is providing a solid performance. That is impressive for any trading system let alone for semi-automated signals.

When I first started the Performance Dashboard Oanda displayed some "enhanced" view that I had never seen before. Evidently once you make 100 trades they give you a more comprehensive analysis. I still wasn't impressed but it did have one interesting graph based on the time of day I entered the trades. There was one quartile that did very well and the other three not so much. An area for future investigation.

I'm also using SnagIt now for the screen shots which has the capability to do a "scrolling" capture. I can now get the whole window in one image. It cuts way down on the work to get these posted. So you'll see two images this time rather than four.

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dligda

Member
A lot of trades this week. It was looking rather mundane until the end of the week when a bunch closed out nicely. Still moving that ugly equity curve in the right direction. :D

Friday saw a lot of new trades so I have 11 open positions. The GBP and the CAD have been very active. The JPY continues to be the best performer.

I am trying to be conserative with my position size. Most of the trades are less than 1% risk and all are less than 2%. I think most of the "ugliness" in that graph is due to not having much data and Oanda's lame trade analyzer. Every little swing looks huge in these small sample sizes.

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dan.campbell

Administrator
Staff member
Yep, the week closed very strong. You've probably noticed, but when markets are bouncing sideways, you will end up with a lot of small losers and a few small winners. The losses are cleaned up and gains are realized when the market is trending. I think those Friday trades will work out nicely. We will see.
 

dan.campbell

Administrator
Staff member
What tool triggers the alerts?
I'm guessing you are directing this question at me? The simple answer is "all of them". Stearno, you've been around since 4Xlounge. If you remember waaaaaay back then, we (me and Adam) were mostly counter-trend traders. We liked picking tops and bottoms. The math doesn't support counter-trend trading long term. So I adapted our tools to find trends. Turns out, the tools are excellent at predicting trend impulses.
 

dligda

Member
Hey I'm a famous YouTube'r now it appears! :D

The upcoming changes look great Dan.

Another note on the trade results. Oanda displays the profit/loss on the account rather than the account balance. Since it's a small number there is a lot of variation which is why the graph looks so choppy. I didn't think about it until after I posted last week's results.

The results this week are ugly. But it's my fault for not managing the trades properly. There were a lot of signals and I should have been exiting earlier when the reversals came in. I don't have a lot of time to trade and I got lazy about looking after these. And paid the price. I was up $116 at one point and now am down around $20. That's how fast you can get into trouble.

The good news is that even with a run of bad trades it wasn't chat
 

dligda

Member
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times.

Things went south rather quickly after a spectacular winning streak. This was my fault. See my post above.

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dan.campbell

Administrator
Staff member
Hey I'm a famous YouTube'r now it appears! :D

The upcoming changes look great Dan.

Another note on the trade results. Oanda displays the profit/loss on the account rather than the account balance. Since it's a small number there is a lot of variation which is why the graph looks so choppy. I didn't think about it until after I posted last week's results.

The results this week are ugly. But it's my fault for not managing the trades properly. There were a lot of signals and I should have been exiting earlier when the reversals came in. I don't have a lot of time to trade and I got lazy about looking after these. And paid the price. I was up $116 at one point and now am down around $20. That's how fast you can get into trouble.

The good news is that even with a run of bad trades it wasn't chat
Yes, you are famous now! With great power....

Are you getting that much movement in your equity running 2% per position? Not judging, just asking :D
 

stearno

Member
I'm guessing you are directing this question at me? The simple answer is "all of them". Stearno, you've been around since 4Xlounge. If you remember waaaaaay back then, we (me and Adam) were mostly counter-trend traders. We liked picking tops and bottoms. The math doesn't support counter-trend trading long term. So I adapted our tools to find trends. Turns out, the tools are excellent at predicting trend impulses.
Yes, 4xLounge was a while ago. And I do remember the counter trend trades. haha.

The reason I asked what the alert is following, so I don't take the same "setup" manually. But if you say it is different than "one system", then it will be fine. Plus, practicing will help. Thanks for the clarification!
 
Thanks for posting! This kind of info helps folks out a lot!

I've been using these signals for a couple of months now. I can see how taking the signals sporadically could cause issues. In the end, it's a math game. The large winners wiping out the losers to generate net growth, but if you miss a few winners the math goes sideways. One suggestion would be to only follow one pair and try to catch every signal (if possible). The GBPUSD or AUDUSD seems to do well on a regular basis. Just a thought :)
 
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