Weekly Trading Results

dligda

Member
Hi Mouse,

Yeah, my results are not necessarily representative of the true potential of the signals. I only enter about half the trades as a good batch usually come in during London and I'm asleep. And you're right - a couple of missed winners in a swing trading system and it really drags down the numbers.

I had the same thought about limiting the pairs. If nothing else to reduce some of the correlation risk. And even though it isn't an overwhelming number of trades that come out I still fall behind sometimes. It's tedious to do all of the calculations, enter, and stay on top of things when it gets busy. Inevitably both the Traders Desktop and OANDA have automatically logged me out so add in the hassle of logging back in to all of the tools. I've not been impressed with the OANDA desktop application. It is constantly giving me issues so I can't leave it running.

And also agree that the GBP and the AUD do well under this system. When the JPY decides to start rolling it can be good too. The rest of them are a mixed bag so far. It's interesting that there are very few EUR trades.

I've also observed that trying to "filter" the trades using the various tools doesn't add any real value. Probably because all of that information is already factored in to the trade signal. It's just an extra step and takes time. If you are going to trade these signals you just have to trust them and not try to outguess or over optimize. As you say - rely on the math.

Thanks for the feedback!

David
 
Hi Mouse,

Yeah, my results are not necessarily representative of the true potential of the signals. I only enter about half the trades as a good batch usually come in during London and I'm asleep. And you're right - a couple of missed winners in a swing trading system and it really drags down the numbers.

I had the same thought about limiting the pairs. If nothing else to reduce some of the correlation risk. And even though it isn't an overwhelming number of trades that come out I still fall behind sometimes. It's tedious to do all of the calculations, enter, and stay on top of things when it gets busy. Inevitably both the Traders Desktop and OANDA have automatically logged me out so add in the hassle of logging back in to all of the tools. I've not been impressed with the OANDA desktop application. It is constantly giving me issues so I can't leave it running.

And also agree that the GBP and the AUD do well under this system. When the JPY decides to start rolling it can be good too. The rest of them are a mixed bag so far. It's interesting that there are very few EUR trades.

I've also observed that trying to "filter" the trades using the various tools doesn't add any real value. Probably because all of that information is already factored in to the trade signal. It's just an extra step and takes time. If you are going to trade these signals you just have to trust them and not try to outguess or over optimize. As you say - rely on the math.

Thanks for the feedback!

David
Hey David, yeah trading part-time is tough. If you only have one session to trade, try to catch all of the U.S. session trades and stick to GBP and AUD pairs.
 

dligda

Member
Not as many trades being generated this week. Not sure if it's the summer markets or a change in the algorithm.

Clawed back a small bit of the loss this week.

2020-07-10_14-23-41.png
 

dan.campbell

Administrator
Staff member
Yeah, trading these signals part-time is risky. I've been trading all of them and up about 23% since March. Missing the winners will kill your gains. Hopefully, they will automate these signals soon. The signals are good, but you have to take all of them.
Yes, we plan to automate all of our tools as custom trading systems. It's in the works.
 

dligda

Member
With all of the talk about the hazards of trading only some of these signals I'm inclined to stop posting my results here until they are automated. My concern is that I'm not giving an accurate portrayal of what the system can do.

If nothing else we have learned, based on the feedback here, that these signals are an "all in" proposition. That discovery has value for anyone looking to use these.
 

dan.campbell

Administrator
Staff member
With all of the talk about the hazards of trading only some of these signals I'm inclined to stop posting my results here until they are automated. My concern is that I'm not giving an accurate portrayal of what the system can do.

If nothing else we have learned, based on the feedback here, that these signals are an "all in" proposition. That discovery has value for anyone looking to use these.
Honestly, even negative results are helpful. I think your posts are still useful and I encourage you to continue posting.
 

dligda

Member
OK. If this is helpful I will continue. Just remember, anyone who is picking this up in the middle of the thread, that I am not taking every trade and therefore my results will vary from whatever trade mix you take.

So speaking of not taking every trade... This week generated an overwhelming number of trades. I only took a fraction of them. I didn't keep count but there were dozens. And many reversals. A long would come in and then an hour later there would be a short in the same pair. It was crazy. At one point I just gave up. It felt more like a scalping system than a swing trading system this week.

Here are the YTD results. I did manage to chip away a little more of the draw down.

2020-07-31_08-47-49.png
 

dligda

Member
Since I have been trading so actively OANDA opened up some additional analysis tools for me. So here are some of the more interesting metrics.

Below is a breakdown by pair. Also notice the overall metrics. The win rate has consistently run about 40%.

There is a reason they call the GBP/JPY "The Dragon" (and many other colorful names). It accounts for the fewest number of trades but the most profitable and least profitable trades.

The USD/CAD is the King of Thrash. I have been selective on which of those trades I take and still it accounts for the most volume. But it's not uncommon that it bounces long and short and back again in the same day.

2020-07-31_08-57-42.png
 

dligda

Member
Here is a breakdown by long/short. I'm not surprised that in Forex the ratio is pretty close but I was surprised that most of my losses were on on short trades. I wouldn't read too much into that. Just an interesting pattern from this specific mix of trades.

2020-07-31_09-10-29.png
 

dligda

Member
Here is a breakdown by hour. I'm not sure exactly what time zone is being used. I will ask OANDA support. If it is my local time it is Mountain Daylight Time in North America. I think their servers on on Eastern Daylight Time and based on this distribution I wouldn't be surprised if they use EDT for their timestamps.

2020-07-31_09-12-27.png
 

dligda

Member
And finally here is the distribution based on the day of the week. I'm not surprised that Friday is an under performer. That is a pattern you see in many trading products, not just FX.

2020-07-31_09-13-44.png
 

dligda

Member
OANDA claims the Time of Day is in my local timezone which is MDT. I am somewhat suspicious of that answer but I'll believe them for now.

I tried to get a straight answer if the report shows the time the trade opened or when it closed. One would think it is the time you open the trade but it's not clear and I got tired of dealing with the support chat - who ultimately told me to reinstall the application. ???

Yeah it was one of those conversations. You've all been there. :mad:
 

dan.campbell

Administrator
Staff member
OANDA claims the Time of Day is in my local timezone which is MDT. I am somewhat suspicious of that answer but I'll believe them for now.

I tried to get a straight answer if the report shows the time the trade opened or when it closed. One would think it is the time you open the trade but it's not clear and I got tired of dealing with the support chat - who ultimately told me to reinstall the application. ???

Yeah it was one of those conversations. You've all been there. :mad:
Yes, we've all definitely been there. Also, as a general rule, I don't trade on Fridays. Over 15+ years of live trading, I am 50/50 at best on Fridays.
 

dligda

Member
It looked like I was going to bring it back into black but had a couple of trades so south at the last minute. Still took a nice chunk out of the draw down.

Why are there so many trades being generated? Is there really that much volatility? I continue to see trades reverse directions within hours - and then signal in the original direction.

2020-08-07_12-41-57.png
 
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